Doğrudan Yabancı Yatırımlar, Enflasyon Oranları ve Ekonomik Büyümenin Ticaret Açıklığı Üzerindeki Asimetrik Etkileri: Gelişmiş Ülkelerde Panel Kantil Regresyon Yaklaşımı
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.63556/tisej.2025.1544Anahtar Kelimeler:
doğrudan yabancı yatırımlar- ticari büyüme- ekonomik büyüme- panel kantil RegresyonÖzet
Bu çalışmada, 1990-2023 dönemlerinde, gelişmiş 11 ülkeye (Belçika, Kanada, Fransa, Almanya, İtalya, Japonya, Hollanda, İsveç, İsviçre, Birleşik Krallık ve Amerika Birleşik Devletleri) ait ticaret açıklığı (export+import/GDP), doğrudan yabancı yatırımlar (DYY), enflasyon oranları ve ekonomik büyüme arasındaki uzun dönemli ilişkiler panel veri analiz yöntemleriyle incelenmiştir. Ampirik bulgular, ticaret açıklığı ile söz konusu makroekonomik değişkenler arasında uzun vadeli eşbütünleşik ilişkilerin varlığına işaret etmektedir. Panel kantil regresyon analizine dayanan momentler metoduna göre, DYY'nin tüm kantillerde ticaret açıklığını azaltıcı yönde istatistiksel olarak anlamlı ve negatif yönlü bir etkisi bulunmuştur. Bu etkinin, özellikle ticaret açıklığının düşük olduğu kantillerde daha belirgin olduğu görülmektedir. Ayrıca, enflasyon oranlarının ticaret açıklığı üzerindeki etkisi ise alt kantillerde daha güçlü iken, üst kantillere çıkıldıkça azaldığı ve ekonomik büyümenin etkisinin ters yönlü olduğu, ticaret açıklığının düşük seviyelerinde daha zayıf, yüksek seviyelerinde ise daha kuvvetli olduğu tespit edilmiştir.
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