Doğrudan Yabancı Yatırımlar, Ticari Açıklık, Dış Borç Stoku ve İhracatın Sahra Altı Afrika Ülkelerinde Ekonomik Büyüme Üzerindeki Etkileri
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.63556/tisej.2025.1600Anahtar Kelimeler:
Ekonomik Büyüme- Doğrudan Yabancı Yatırımlar- Dış borç stoku- Ticaret açıklığı- İhracatÖzet
Bu çalışma, Sahra Altı Afrika (SSA) ülkelerinde ekonomik büyümenin belirleyicilerini ampirik olarak incelemeyi amaçlamaktadır. Ekonomik büyümenin sürdürülebilirliği açısından büyük önem taşıyan makroekonomik dinamiklerin anlaşılmasına katkı sunmayı hedefleyen çalışmada, özellikle dışa açık ekonomilerde sıklıkla tartışılan dört temel unsur olan doğrudan yabancı yatırımlar, dış borç stoku, ticari açıklık ve ihracat değişkenleri analiz kapsamına alınmıştır. 1975-2023 dönemine ait yıllık panel veriler kullanılarak 21 SSA ülkesi için oluşturulan modelde hem yatay kesit bağımlılığı hem de heterojenlik sorunu göz önünde bulundurulmuştur. Bu doğrultuda, tahminler Dinamik Ortak Korelasyonlu Etkiler Ortalama Grup (DCCEMG) yöntemiyle gerçekleştirilmiştir. Elde edilen ampirik bulgulara göre, doğrudan yabancı yatırımların ekonomik büyüme üzerinde pozitif ve istatistiksel olarak anlamlı bir etkisi bulunmaktadır. Öte yandan, dış borç stokunun ekonomik büyüme üzerinde negatif ve anlamlı bir etkisi olduğu tespit edilmiştir. Ticari açıklık ve ihracat değişkenleri ise istatistiksel olarak anlamlı bir etki göstermemiştir. Ayrıca çalışmada değişkenler arasındaki nedensellik ilişkisi araştırılmıştır. Emirmahmutoğlu–Köse nedensellik testinden elde edilen bulgular panel düzeylerinde anlamlı ilişkiler olmadığını ortaya koymuştur. Nedensellik ilişkisinin daha çok ülke bazında ve heterojen şekilde ortaya çıktığı gözlenmiştir. Çalışmanın bulguları, SSA ülkelerinde sürdürülebilir büyümeyi sağlamak adına doğrudan yabancı yatırımları teşvik edecek yapısal reformlara, borç yönetiminin güçlendirilmesine ve dış ticaretin katma değer odaklı bir yapıya dönüştürülmesine yönelik politika önerileri geliştirilmesi gerektiğini ortaya koymaktadır. Bu bağlamda, çalışma literatüre hem bölgesel bazlı kapsamı hem de metodolojik yaklaşımıyla katkı sağlamaktadır.
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