6 Şubat Kahramanmaraş Depremlerinin Ekonomik Büyüme Üzerindeki Dinamik Etkileri: Deprem Skoru Temelli ARDL Analizi

Yazarlar

DOI:

https://doi.org/10.63556/tisej.2025.1669

Anahtar Kelimeler:

Deprem- deprem skoru- ekonomik büyüme- yatırım harcaması- ARDL Analizi.

Özet

Türkiye ekonomisi, depremlerin sıklıkla yaşandığı makroekonomik dışsal şoklara karşı kırılgan yapısıyla oldukça dikkat çekmektedir. Özellikle 6 Şubat 2023’te yaşanan Kahramanmaraş merkezli depremler, insani kayıplarla birlikte ekonomik büyüme üzerinde doğrudan ve dolaylı önemli etkiler doğurmuştur. Bu çalışmanın amacı, 6 Şubat depremlerinin ekonomik büyüme üzerindeki etkisini deprem skoru (deprem hasar yoğunluğu) ile ölçerek hem kısa hem uzun vadeli etkiyi ARDL yaklaşımı ile analiz etmektir. Analiz 2003:Q1-2025:Q1 arası çeyreklik verileri kapsamaktadır. Depremin hasar yoğunluğunu ölçen deprem skoru aracılığıyla insani ve ekonomik hasar boyutu birlikte ele alınmıştır. Ayrıca deprem sonrası yeniden inşa ve kamu yatırım harcama kanalları üzerinden makroekonomik etkiler incelenmiştir. Sonuç olarak, 6 Şubat depremlerinin kısa vadede deprem sonrası ilk çeyrekte ekonomik büyümeyi olumlu etkilediği, ikinci çeyrekte ise negatif etkilediği ile ilgili bulgulara ulaşılmıştır. Uzun vadede ise, deprem sonrası kamu yatırım harcamalarının ekonomik büyümede negatif etki oluşturduğu elde edilmiştir. Türkiye’de afet ekonomisi üzerine yapılan çalışmalar sınırlı olup, özellikle deprem skorları aracılığıyla hem insani hem ekonomik hasarın birlikte ölçüldüğü bütüncül analizlere literatürde oldukça nadir rastlanmaktadır. Özellikle Türkiye bazında daha önce bütünleşik etkinin incelenmemiş olması çalışmaya hem yöntemsel hem de politika önerileri açısından yenilik ve özgünlük katmaktadır.

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İndir

Yayınlanmış

20-12-2025

Nasıl Atıf Yapılır

DÜRRÜ, Z. (2025). 6 Şubat Kahramanmaraş Depremlerinin Ekonomik Büyüme Üzerindeki Dinamik Etkileri: Deprem Skoru Temelli ARDL Analizi. Üçüncü Sektör Sosyal Ekonomi Dergisi, 60(4), 4378–4397. https://doi.org/10.63556/tisej.2025.1669

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