Ekonomik Karmaşıklık ve İktisadi Büyüme İlişkisi: Seçilmiş Gelişmekte Olan Ülkeler için Panel Veri Analizi
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.63556/tisej.2026.1762Anahtar Kelimeler:
Ekonomik Karmaşıklık- İktisadi Büyüme- Gelişmekte Olan Ülkeler- Panel Veri AnaliziÖzet
Toplumsal etkileşim ağı ile toplumun harekete geçirdiği üretken bilgi miktarının ölçüsü olan, ülkenin üretken çıktısının bileşiminde ifade edilen, bilgiyi tutacak ve birleştirecek yapıları yansıtan ekonomik karmaşıklık, karmaşık ürünler yaratma ve üretme yeteneklerinin gelişmesiyle sürdürülebilir olmakta ve böylece iktisadi büyümenin itici gücü haline gelmektedir. Bu çalışmada, ekonomik karmaşıklığın iktisadi büyüme üzerindeki etkisinin 35 gelişmekte olan ülke için 1995-2022 dönemine ait yıllık veriler kullanılarak panel ARDL (Autoregressive Distirbuted Lag-otoregresif dağıtılmış gecikmeli model) ile analiz edilmesi amaçlanmaktadır. Analiz sonuçları, uzun dönemde ve kısa dönemde tüm katsayıların istatistiksel olarak anlamlı olduğunu göstermektedir. Uzun dönemde iktisadi büyüme üzerinde sabit sermaye oluşumunun ve mal-hizmet ihracatının pozitif, ekonomik karmaşıklığın negatif etkisi bulunmaktadır. Ekonomik karmaşıklık düzeyi ile iktisadi büyüme arasındaki negatif yönlü ilişkinin beklenenin aksine bir sonuç olarak ortaya çıkmasında ekonomik karmaşıklığı oluşturan faktörlerin gelişmekte olan ülkelerde yetersiz, tam anlamıyla yerleşmemiş, olgunlaşmamış ve gelişmemiş olmasının etkili olduğu söylenebilir. Gelişmekte olan ülkelerde, ekonomik karmaşıklık düzeyinin artırılması ve iktisadi büyümeye katkı sağlaması için yapısal dönüşümde ilerlemeyi gerçekleştirecek kurumsal altyapı, iletişimin sağlandığı örgütlü bir toplum yapısı, bilim temelli uzun dönemi kapsayan, sürekli ve sürdürülebilir sistemler güçlendirilmeli ve geliştirilmelidir.
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