Kriz ve Balon Dönemlerinde Rasyonel Yatırımcı Davranışı: Geleneksel ve Davranışsal Finans Perspektiflerinden Değerlendirme
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.63556/tisej.2026.1842Anahtar Kelimeler:
Yatırımcı Rasyonelliği- Davranışsal Finans- Finansal Kriz- Varlık Fiyat Balonları- Belirsizlik Altında Karar AlmaÖzet
Bu çalışma kriz ve balon dönemlerinde rasyonel yatırımcı davranışında ortaya çıkan sapmaları geleneksel finans, davranışsal finans ve psikoloji literatürünü bütüncül bir çerçevede bir araya getirerek yeniden incelemektedir. Kriz ve balon dönemleri, bilişsel yükün arttığı yüksek belirsizlik dönemleri olarak tanımlanmaktadır. Bu dönemlerde rasyonaliteden sapmaların davranışsal altyapısı, piyasa koşulları ve risk unsurları üzerindeki etkisi tartışılmaktadır. Çalışma, yatırımcıların rasyonel davrandığı varsayımı ile şekillenen geleneksel finans teorilerinin önemini koruduğunu, ancak finansal piyasalarda alınan yatırım kararlarının çok daha karmaşık psikolojik faktörlerden etkilendiğini farklı bakış açıları ile değerlendirmektedir. Tarihsel süreçte ortaya çıkan kriz ve balon dönemlerinde rasyonel yatırımcı davranışından sapmalar ve bu sapmaların piyasalar üzerindeki etkileri araştırılmıştır. Geleneksel finans teorileri, yatırımcıların rasyonel, tutarlı ve fayda maksimizasyonuna dayalı kararlar aldığını varsaymaktadır. Davranışsal finans teorileri, yatırımcıların, sistematik bilişsel yanlılıklara, duygusal tepkilere ve sezgisel karar verme süreçlerine maruz kaldığını göstererek bu varsayımları kökten sorgulamaktadır. Psikoloji literatürüne göre finansal kararlar, bilişsel kestirmeler ve sistematik yanlılıklar içermektedir. Bu çerçevede çalışma, geleneksel finansın normatif rasyonellik modelleri ile davranışsal finansın betimleyici bulgularını, psikolojideki sınırlı rasyonalite, çift-süreçli düşünme, belirsizlik altında karar verme ve pişmanlık yaklaşımlarıyla bütünleştirerek yorumlamaktadır. Çalışma, yatırımcı davranışının yalnızca finansal modellere dayalı değil, bilişsel, duygusal ve sosyal değişimlerden etkilenen disiplinler arası bir olgu olduğunu ortaya koymaktadır.
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