Tarımsal Finansman ve Kamu Desteklerinin İstihdam Dinamikleri Üzerindeki Etkisi: Gelir Gruplarına Göre Karşılaştırmalı Bir Panel Veri Analizi

Yazarlar

DOI:

https://doi.org/10.63556/tisej.2026.1941

Anahtar Kelimeler:

Tarımsal Finansman- Kamu Harcamaları- İşgücü Piyasası- Fark GMM- Panel Veri- Finansal Kapsayıcılık

Öz

Bu çalışmanın amacı, tarımsal finansman ile istihdam arasındaki ilişkiyi, gelir grubu farklılıkları temelinde karşılaştırmalı olarak analiz etmektedir. Dünya Bankası gelir grubu sınıflandırması çerçevesinde, 33 üst-orta gelirli ülkeden oluşan Panel A ve alt-orta ile düşük gelirli 41 ülkeyi kapsayan Panel B olmak üzere iki ayrı panel veri seti oluşturulmuştur. FAOSTAT ve WDI veri tabanlarından derlenen 2011–2023 dönemine ait dengesiz panel verisi, içsellik ve dinamik atalet sorunlarını gidermek amacıyla İki Aşamalı Fark GMM (Arellano-Bond) tahmincisiyle analiz edilmiştir. Bulgular, finansman araçlarının etkisinin gelir grubuna bağlı olarak farklılaştığını ortaya koymaktadır. Üst-orta gelirli ülkelerde tarımsal kredi payındaki artış hem tarımsal istihdamı artırmakta hem de genel işsizliği düşürmektedir. Bu bulgu, üst-orta gelir grubunda kredi aktarım mekanizmasının işlevsel olduğuna işaret etmektedir. Buna karşın aynı grupta kamu harcamalarından tarım kesimine ayrılan pay tarımsal istihdamı azaltmakta ve genel işsizliği artırmaktadır. Söz konusu paradoksal etki teknoloji literatüründe ikame hipoteziyle açıklanmaktadır. Alt-orta ve düşük gelirli ülkelerde ise her iki finansman aracının da istihdam üzerinde istatistiksel olarak anlamlı bir etkisi bulunmamaktadır. Bu durum finansal dışlanma ve politika aktarım mekanizmasının yetersizliğiyle ilişkilendirilmektedir. Tüm modellerde güçlü işgücü piyasası ataleti saptanmış olup bu bulgu işgücü piyasalarındaki histeri etkisini teyit etmektedir. Sonuçlar, tarımsal finansman politikasının ülkelerin gelişmişlik düzeyine özgü biçimde tasarlanması gerektiğine işaret etmektedir.

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İndir

Yayınlanmış

22-09-2026

Sayı

Bölüm

Araştırma Makalesi

Nasıl Atıf Yapılır

ÖZTÜRK ÇETENAK, Ö. (2026). Tarımsal Finansman ve Kamu Desteklerinin İstihdam Dinamikleri Üzerindeki Etkisi: Gelir Gruplarına Göre Karşılaştırmalı Bir Panel Veri Analizi. Üçüncü Sektör Sosyal Ekonomi Dergisi, 61(3), 2900-2915. https://doi.org/10.63556/tisej.2026.1941