Reel Kâr Yönetimi Gelecekteki Hisse Senedi Fiyat Çöküşü Riskiyle İlişkili midir? Borsa İstanbul’dan Bulgular
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.63556/tisej.2026.1988Anahtar Kelimeler:
Reel kar yönetimi- hisse senedi fiyat çöküşü- bilgi asimetrisi- firma aşırı değerlemesiÖz
Bu çalışmada, Borsa İstanbul’da işlem gören şirketlere ait 2.839 firma-yıl gözleminden yararlanılarak reel kâr yönetiminin gelecekteki hisse senedi fiyat çöküşü riski üzerindeki etkisi incelenmektedir. Açıklayıcı değişkenler 2005–2024 döneminde, hisse senedi fiyat çöküşü riski ölçütleri ise 2006–2025 döneminde ölçülmüştür. Reel kâr yönetimi (REM), anormal üretim maliyetleri, anormal ihtiyari giderler ve anormal faaliyetlerden sağlanan nakit akışları kullanılarak ölçülürken, çöküş riski negatif koşullu çarpıklık ve aşağı-yukarı volatilite ölçütleriyle değerlendirilmektedir. Bulgular, daha yüksek REM düzeylerinin her iki çöküş riski ölçütünün de daha yüksek değerleriyle ilişkili olduğunu göstermektedir. Bu sonuç, alternatif ölçütler, birinci fark modelleri, firma sabit etkileri ve entropi dengelemesi uygulanmış gözlemler kullanıldığında da geçerliliğini korumaktadır. Çalışma, kendine özgü piyasa koşullarına ve raporlama uygulamalarına sahip gelişmekte olan bir piyasadan bulgular sunarak REM literatürüne katkıda bulunmaktadır. Firma aşırı değerlemesi ve bilgi asimetrisine ilişkin hipotezlerle tutarlı olarak, yatay kesit analizleri REM ile gelecekteki hisse senedi fiyat çöküşü riski arasındaki pozitif ilişkinin aşırı değerlenmiş firmalarda ve bilgi asimetrisinin daha yüksek olduğu firmalarda daha güçlü olduğunu göstermektedir. Bu bulgu, değerleme baskısının olumsuz haberlerin kamuya yansıtılmasını geciktirme yönündeki teşvikleri güçlendirebileceği, opak bilgi ortamlarının ise piyasa katılımcılarının şirketlerin temel sorunlarını tespit etmesini zorlaştırdığı görüşünü desteklemektedir.
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