Strategic Recalibration and Hierarchy in the Aegean: A Power Transition Analysis of Regional Maritime Disputes
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.63556/tisej.2026.1974Keywords:
Aegean Sea, UNCLOS, Power Transition Theory, Maritime Security, Multiple Hierarchy ModelAbstract
This article reconceptualizes the Aegean maritime disputes as a structural contest over regional hierarchy rather than a purely technical problem of maritime delimitation. Drawing on Power Transition Theory and Multiple Hierarchy Model, it examines how the changing material balance of power between Türkiye and Greece reshapes legal interpretations of maritime jurisdiction within the Aegean regional subsystem. The study argues that competing legal positions are embedded in broader strategic objectives. While Greece relies on the normative framework of the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea (UNCLOS) to preserve the existing maritime order, Türkiye seeks a recalibration that reflects its expanding naval capabilities and regional influence. Employing a qualitative, theory-driven case study, the analysis seeks to mitigate the risk of ecological fallacy by disaggregating aggregate defense expenditures into naval-specific indicators. The findings suggest that the persistent deadlock may be understood not merely as a product of legal ambiguity or diplomatic failure, but also as a managed equilibrium associated with an ongoing process of regional power transition. By systematically applying the Multiple Hierarchy Model to the Aegean and operationalizing power transition through maritime-specific capability indicators, the study offers a novel framework for explaining the interaction between legal norms, material capabilities, and regional stability in semi-enclosed seas.
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