EAGLE Ekonomilerinde Kişi Başına CO₂ Emisyonlarının Yakınsaması: Fourier Kantil Birim Kök Testinden Bulgular
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.63556/tisej.2026.1879Anahtar Kelimeler:
CO₂ Emisyonu- Fourier Kantil Birim Kök Testi- EAGLE Ekonomiler- YakınsamaÖz
Bu araştırmanın amacı, yükselen ekonomiler arasında kişi başına düşen CO₂ salınımlarının stokastik yakınsama gösterip göstermediğini Brezilya, Çin, Mısır, Hindistan, Endonezya, Meksika, Rusya, Güney Kore ve Türkiye gibi EAGLE ülkeleri kapsamında incelemektir. Geleneksel birim kök testlerinin sınırlılıklarını aşmak amacıyla yapısal kırılmalar ve doğrusal olmayan durumları dikkate alan Fourier Kantil Birim Kök Testi kullanılmıştır. Bu yöntem, serilerin farklı kantillerdeki durağanlık özelliklerini inceleyerek, yakınsama davranışını daha ayrıntılı bir şekilde değerlendirmeye olanak tanımaktadır. Bu araştırmanın özgün yönü, kişi başına karbon emisyonlarına ilişkin yakınsama analizine kantil-temelli ve yapısal kırılmaları içeren Fourier yaklaşımıyla yenilikçi bir katkı sunmasıdır. Böylece çevre politikalarının ülkeye ve dağılım düzeyine göre farklı etkiler doğurabileceğini göstererek, politika yapıcılara esnek ve hedef odaklı stratejiler geliştirme konusunda yol göstermektedir. Bulgular, ülkeye özgü stokastik yakınsamanın heterojen ve kantile bağlı bir yapı gösterdiğini ortaya koymaktadır. Çin ve Güney Kore’de incelenen tüm kantillerde durağanlık tespit edilmiştir. Diğer ekonomilerde ise durağanlık yalnızca belirli kantillerde gözlemlenmiştir: Brezilya için τ = 0,10, 0,30, 0,80 ve 0,90; Mısır için τ = 0,30–0,90; Hindistan için τ = 0,20–0,50; Endonezya için τ = 0,30, 0,40, 0,60, 0,70 ve 0,90; Meksika için τ = 0,30, 0,50, 0,80 ve 0,90; Türkiye için ise τ = 0,10, 0,30–0,70 ve 0,90 kantillerinde durağanlık bulgusuna ulaşılmıştır. Rusya’da durağanlık yalnızca τ = 0,20 ve 0,80 kantillerinde tespit edilmiş olup, stokastik yakınsama kanıtı sınırlı düzeydedir. Ayrıca Fourier Kantil Kolmogorov–Smirnov testi Çin, Endonezya ve Türkiye için dağılımın geneline ilişkin stokastik yakınsama kanıtı sunmaktadır. Bu sonuçlar, EAGLE ekonomilerinin emisyon düzeylerinin birbirine doğrudan yakınsamasını değil, ülkeye özgü uzun dönem patikalarına dönüş eğilimini ifade etmektedir.
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