The Effects of Physical Transportation Infrastructure on Export Specialization in the Turkish Economy
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.63556/tisej.2026.1831Keywords:
Transportation Infrastructure Investments, Freight Transportation, Export Concentration, Fossil Energy Consumption, Vector Error Correction Model (VECM)Abstract
An advanced transportation infrastructure creates a competitive advantage in specific products and sectors by reducing the cost of accessing foreign markets, enabling the transportation of goods to more countries. Furthermore, freight transportation capacity and energy consumption support export-oriented growth strategies, influencing not only the increase in export volume but also the export structure and pattern. This study aims to analyze the effects of the transportation sector on export specialization in Turkey. Transportation infrastructure expenditures and freight transportation are considered as key explanatory variables representing the development of the transportation sector, while fossil energy consumption, closely related to the sector, is also included in the study. The Theil export product concentration index data is used as an indicator of export specialization. In the empirical analysis of the study, cointegration tests, VECM analysis, and FMOLS, DOLS, and CCR estimations were performed. Long-term estimations for the period 1995-2023 revealed that transportation infrastructure investments and freight transportation reduce export concentration, while fossil energy consumption increases export concentration. These findings show that developing transportation infrastructure and increasing transportation capacity contributes to a more balanced, diversified, and sustainable export structure; however, increased fossil energy consumption destabilizes export performance by concentrating exports in certain products and increases the economy's vulnerability to external shocks.
References
Acar, D. Ö. & Benli, M. (2021). Diş ticarette lojistik performansın etkisi. Journal of Management and Economics Research, 19(4), 48-65. https://doi.org/10.11611/yead.897110
Akar, G. & Ay, A. (2019). Ürün ve ülke açısından ihracat çeşitlendirmesi: Türkiye üzerine bir değerlendirme. Gümüşhane Üniversitesi Sosyal Bilimler Dergisi, 10(1), 116-127. https://dergipark.org.tr/en/pub/gumus/article/460996
Akay, D. (2016). Uluslararası lojistikte taşıma modu seçimini etkileyen faktörler: Türkiye uygulaması ve bir model önerisi. Yayınlanmamış Yüksek Lisans Tezi, KTO Karatay Üniversitesi, Sosyal Bilimler Enstitüsü, Konya. Anderson, J. E. & Van Wincoop, E. (2003). Gravity with gravitas: A solution to the border puzzle. American Economic Review, 93(1), 170-192. DOI: 10.1257/000282803321455214
Aschauer, D. A. (1989). Is public expenditure productive? Journal of Monetary Economics, 23(2), 177-200. https://doi.org/10.1016/0304-3932(89)90047-0
Ayrancı, E. (2009). Türkiye’nin ekonomik açıdan küreselleşmesinin yoğunlaşma vasıtasıyla ölçülmesi ve konu hakkında bir araştırma. Anadolu Bil Meslek Yüksekokulu Dergisi, 16, 50-64. https://dergipark.org.tr/en/pub/abmyoder/article/583442
Bashir, M. A., Sheng, B., Doğan, B., Sarwar, S. & Shahzad, U. (2020). Export product diversification and energy efficiency: Empirical evidence from OECD countries. Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, 55, 232-243., https://doi.org/10.1016/j.strueco.2020.09.002
Bozduman, E. T. (2025). PIIGS ülkelerinin sektörel bazda ihracat ve ithalat yoğunlaşmalarının analizi. Turkish Studies - Economy, 20(1), 73-91. https://dx.doi.org/10.7827/TurkishStudies.78152
Bruckner, M. (2023). Measuring export concentration for identifying least developed countries. Commıttee for Development Policy Background Paper No. 59. https://www.un.org/development/desa/dpad/wp-content/uploads/sites/45/CDP-bp-2023-59.pdf
Can, M., Balsalobre-Lorente, D., Adedoyin, F. F., & Mercan, M. (2025). The impact of trade openness, export concentration and economic complexity on energy demand among G7 countries. Energy & Environment, 36(2), 638-659. https://doi.org/10.1177/0958305X231177740
Çevirmez, E.O. (2021). Türkiye’nin ihracatında bölgesel ve sektörel yoğunlaşma, Ekonomi Bilimleri Dergisi, 13(1), 1-15. https://dergipark.org.tr/tr/pub/ebd/article/811501
Çimen, Z. ve Kösekahyaoğlu, L. (2022). Türkiye ve BRICS ülkeleri üzerine sektörel bir yoğunlaşma analizi. Uluslararası İktisadi ve İdari Bilimler Dergisi, 8 (2), 202-221. https://doi.org/10.29131/uiibd.1205647
Deng, T. (2013). Impacts of transport infrastructure on productivity and economic growth: Recent advances and research challenges. Transport Reviews, 33(6), 686-699. https://doi.org/10.1080/01441647.2013.851745
Deviren, V. N. (2004). Yeni dış ticaret teorileri. Mevzuat Dergisi, 7(81). https://www.mevzuatdergisi.com/2004/09a/05.htm
Dickey, D. A., Fuller, W. A. (1981). Likelihood ratio statistics for autoregressive time series with a unit root. Econometrica, 49(4), 1057-1072. https://doi.org/10.2307/1912517
Dickey, D.A., Fuller, W.A. (1979). Distribution of the estimators for autoregressive time series with a unit root. Journal of American Statistical Association, 74 (366), 427-431. https://doi.org/10.1080/01621459.1979.10482531
Dumičić, K., Jošić, H., & Žmuk, B. (2018). Investigating export market concentration for developed, developing and transition countries. Vallis Aurea, 4(1), 6-28.https://doi.org/10.2507/IJVA.4.1.1.43
Engle, R. F. ve Granger, C. W. J. (1987). Co-integration and error correction: Representation, estimation, and testing. Econometrica, 55/2, 251-276. https://doi.org/10.2307/1913236
Erkan, B. (2014). Türkiye’de lojistik sektörü ve rekabet gücü. Assam Uluslararası Hakemli Dergi, 1(1), 44-65. https://dergipark.org.tr/en/pub/assam/article/358468
Erkan, B., & Sunay, Z. F. (2016). Türkiye’nin ihracatının yoğunlaşma perspektifinde analizi. İnsan ve Toplum Bilimleri Araştırmaları Dergisi, 5(7), 1823-1842. https://doi.org/10.15869/itobiad.259266
Erlat, G. ve Akyüz, O. (2001). Country Concentration of Turkish Exports and Imports Over Time, Topics in Middle Eastern and African Economies, 3. https://meea.sites.luc.edu/volume3/gerlat.pdf
Fatima, T., Mentel, G., Doğan, B., Hashim, Z., & Shahzad, U. (2022). Investigating the role of export product diversification for renewable, and non-renewable energy consumption in GCC (gulf cooperation council) countries: does the Kuznets hypothesis exist?. Environment, Development and Sustainability, 24(6), 8397-8417. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10668-021-01789-z
Felipe, J., & Kumar, U. (2012). The role of trade facilitation in central asia: A gravity model. Eastern European Economics, 50(4), 5-20. https://doi.org/10.2753/EEE0012-8775500401
Gnangnon, S. K. (2021). Aid for Trade and services export diversification in recipient countries. Australian Economic Papers, 60 (2), 189–225. https://doi.org/10.1111/1467-8454.12200
Gözgör, G., Can, M. (2016). Ekonomik kalkınmanın farklı aşamalarında ihracatın ürün çeşitlendirmesinin gelir üzerindeki etkileri. Avrasya Otobüs Rev 6 , 215–235. https://doi.org/10.1007/s40821-016-0045-5
Hesse, H. (2008). Export diversification and economic growth. International Bank for Reconstruction and Development/the World Bank Commission on Growth and Development Working Paper, No. 21. Washington, D.C.: World Bank. https://openknowledge.worldbank.org/server/api/core/bitstreams/e8eb01ea-1588-5e80-83cd-a0b9c51c685f/content
İncekara B. (2020). Econometrıc Analysıs Of Logıstıcs and Transportatıon Spendıng and Export In Turkey. Pressacademia Journal Of Economics, Finance and Accounting, 7(2). 166-172. DOI: 10.17261/pressacademia.2020.1211
Johansen, S. (1995), Likelihood Based Inference in Cointegrating Vector Autoregressive Models, NewYork: Oxford University Press. https://doi.org/10.1093/0198774508.001.0001
Johansen, S., & Juselius, K. (1990). Maximum likelihood estimation and inference on co integration with application to the demand for money. Journal of Economics and Statistics, 52, 169-210. https://digilander.libero.it/rocco.mosconi/JohansenJuselius1990.pdf
Jošić, H., Žmuk, B., & Dumičić, K. (2019). Measurement of export market concentration for the largest European economic integrations. Business Systems Research: International Journal of the Society for Advancing Innovation and Research in Economy, 10(2), 61-72. https://doi.org/10.2478/bsrj-2019-018
Kalim, R. & Shahbaz, M. (2009). Remittances and poverty nexus: Evidence from Pakistan. International Research Journal of Finance and Economics, 29(2), 45-49.
Kaplan, B. (2019). türkiye’de lojistik sektörünün dış ticaret üzerinde etkileri (otomotiv endüstrisi örneği). Tekirdağ Namık Kemal Üniversitesi Sosyal Bilimler Enstitüsü. Yüksek Lisans Tezi, Tekirdağ. https://tez.yok.gov.tr/UlusalTezMerkezi/tezDetay.jsp?id=FyQg6cNH2Owcj3PRrSAoYA&no=n5N9bDfX87ulOR2YFh5WOQ
Kılıç, M., & Koçdemir, S. U. (2018). Dış ticaret ve lojistik arasındaki ilişki: Yükselen piyasa ekonomisindeki ülkelerde panel veri analizi. In 1st Internatıonal Economıcs and Busıness Symposıum
Kök, R., İspir, M. S., & Arı, A. A. (2010). Zengin ülkelerden azgelişmiş ülkelere kaynak aktarma mekanizmasının gerekliliği ve evrensel bölüşüm parametresi üzerine bir deneme. Uluslararası Ekonomi Konferansı, Türkiye Ekonomi Kurumu, Kıbrıs.
Kösekahyaoğlu, L. (2007). Türkiye dış ticaretinde ürün ve ülke bazında yoğunlaşma: 1980-2005 dönemi üzerine karşılaştırmalı bir analiz, İstanbul Üniversitesi Siyasal Bilgiler Fakültesi Dergisi, 36, 15-34. https://dergipark.org.tr/en/download/article-file/5346
Lee, D., & Zhang, H. (2022). Export diversification in low-income countries and small states: Do country size and income level matter?. Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, 60, 250-265. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.strueco.2021.11.017
Melemen, M. (2012). Uygulamalı Uluslararası Ticaret İşlemleri. İstanbul: Türkmen Yayınevi
Melitz, M. (2003). The impact of trade on intra-industry reallocations and aggregate industry productivity. Econometrica, 71 (6), 1695-1725. https://doi.org/10.1111/1468-0262.00467Digital Object Identifier (DOI)
Mora, J., & Olabisi, M. (2023). Economic development and export diversification: The role of trade costs. International Economics, 173, 102-118. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.inteco.2022.11.002
Munnell, A. H. (1992). Policy watch: Infrastructure investment and economic growth. Journal of economic perspectives, 6(4), 189-198. https://www.aeaweb.org/articles?id=10.1257/jep.6.4.189
Nelson, C.R. & Plosser, C. I. (1982). Trends and random walks in macroeconomic time series some evidence and implications. Journal of Monetary Economics, 10(2), 139-162. https://doi.org/10.1016/0304-3932(82)90012-5
OECD (2025). OECD Data, https://data-explorer.oecd.org/
Ofluoğlu, N. Ö., Kalaycı, C., Artan, S., & Bal, H. Ç. (2018). Lojistik performansındaki gelişmelerin uluslararası ticaret üzerindeki etkileri: AB ve MENA ülkeleri örneği. Gümüşhane Üniversitesi Sosyal Bilimler Dergisi, 9(24), 92-109. https://dergipark.org.tr/en/download/article-file/564546
Öztürk, N. S. (2025). Doğu avrupa ve orta asya ülkelerinde ulaştırma yatırımları, lojistik performans ve dış ticaret ilişkisi: Bir panel veri analizi. Ömer Halisdemir Üniversitesi İktisadi ve İdari Bilimler Fakültesi Dergisi, 18(2), 721-735. https://doi.org/10.25287/ohuiibf.1606878
Park, J.Y. (1992). Canonical Cointegrating Regressions. Econometrica: Journal of the Econometric Society, 119-143. https://doi.org/10.2307/2951679
Phillips, P. C. B. ve Perron, P. (1988). Testing for a unit root in time series regression. Biometrika, 75/2, 335-346. https://doi.org/10.1093/biomet/75.2.335
Phillips, P. C. ve Hansen, B. E. (1990). Statistical inference in instrumental variables regression with I (1) processes. The Review of Economic Studies, 57, 99-125. https://doi.org/10.2307/2297545
Rehman, F. U., & Sohag, K. (2023). Does transport infrastructure spur export diversification and sophistication in the G-20 economies? An application of CS-ARDL. Applied Economics Letters, 30(14), 1861-1865. https://doi.org/10.1080/13504851.2022.2083554
Rehman, F. U., Islam, M. M., & Raza, S. A. (2023). Does disaggregate energy consumption matter to export sophistication and diversification in OECD countries? A robust panel model analysis. Renewable Energy, 206, 274-284. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.renene.2023.02.035
Saatçioğlu, C. (2006) Ulaştırma Sistemleri ve Politikaları: Türkiye Avrupa Birliği Uygulamaları. Gazi Kitabevi, Ankara.
Saikkonen, P. (1992). Estimation and testing of cointegrated systems by an autoregressive approximation. Econometric Theory, 8(1), 1-27. https://doi.org/10.1017/S0266466600010720
Sevüktekin, M., & Çınar, M. (2017). Ekonometrik Zaman Serileri Analizi EViews Uygulamalı. Dora Yayıncılık, 5. Baskı, Bursa.
Seyidoğlu, H. (2017). Uluslararası İktisat Teori Politika Ve Uygulama. Güzem Can Yayınları, İstanbul.
Shahzad U., Doğan B., Sinha A.,. et al. (2020). Does export product diversification help to reduce energy demand: Exploring the contextual evidences from the newly industrialized countries. Energy, 118881. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.energy.2020.118881
Sharma, R., Shahbaz, M., Kautish, P., & Vo, X. V. (2021). Analyzing the impact of export diversification and technological innovation on renewable energy consumption: Evidences from BRICS nations. Renewable Energy, 178, 1034-1045. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.renene.2021.06.125
Shi, J., Bai, T., Zhao, Z., & Tan, H. (2024). Driving economic growth through transportation ınfrastructure: An ın depth spatial econometric analysis. Sustainability, 16(10), 4283. https://doi.org/10.3390/su16104283
Siswana, S., & Phiri, A. (2020). Is export diversification or export specialization responsible for economic growth in BRICS Countries? The International Trade Journal. https://doi.org/10.1080/08853908.2020.1842823
Stock, J. H. & Watson, M. W. (1993). A simple estimator of cointegrating vectors in higher order ıntegrated systems. Econometrica: Journal of the Econometric Society, 783-820. https://doi.org/10.2307/2951763
Şanlı, D., & Konukman, A. (2022). Yüksek teknoloji ihracatında ürün yoğunlaşması ve gelir üzerine ampirik bir analiz. EKOIST Journal of Econometrics and Statistics, (36), 153-185. https://doi.org/10.26650/ekoist.2022.36.1039695
Talley, W. (1996). Linkages between transportation infrastructure investment and economic production. Logistics and Transportation Review, 32(1), 145. https://trid.trb.org/View/461753
Theresa, U. O., Gloria, A. O., & Frank, E. U. (2025). Impact of export-related infrastructure development on Nigeria's economic diversification. Journal of Architecture and Civil Engineering, 10(3), 20-31.
Tinbergen, J. (1962). Shaping The World Economy. New York: Twentieth Century Fund.
Tunç, H., & Kaya, M. (2016). Türkiye’de lojistik sektörünün gelişmesinde dış ticaretin rolü üzerine bir nedensellik analizi. Süleyman Demirel Üniversitesi Vizyoner Dergisi, 7(14), 58-65. https://doi.org/10.21076/vizyoner.245977
Türkmen, A. (2018). Türkiye ihracatında ürün ve ülke çeşitlemesinin sosyoekonomik belirleyicileri. Yayınlanmamış Doktora Tezi, Atatürk Üniversitesi, Sosyal Bilimler Enstitüsü, Erzurum.
UNCTAD (2025). https://unctadstat.unctad.org/datacentre/, https://unctadstat.unctad.org/datacentre/reportInfo/US.MerchTheilIndices
UNCTAD (2025). Merchandise: Theil concentration indices of exports and imports, annual (analytical) https://unctadstat.unctad.org/datacentre/dataviewer/US.MerchTheilIndices
Ünlü, F., & Yıldız, R. (2019). Türkiye’de dış ticaretin teknolojik yapısının fasıl bazlı yoğunlaşma analizleri ile belirlenmesi. Karadeniz Teknik Üniversitesi Sosyal Bilimler Enstitüsü Sosyal Bilimler Dergisi, 9(17), 7-26. https://dergipark.org.tr/tr/pub/sbed/article/458349
World Bank (2025). World Development Indicators. https://databank.worldbank.org/source/world-development-indicators
Downloads
Published
Issue
Section
License
Copyright (c) 2026 Third Sector Social Economic Review
This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial 4.0 International License.
