Yeşil Dönüşüm Bağlamında Türkiye’de Ekonomik Büyüme, Enerji ve Karbon Emisyonları İlişkisi: Çevresel Kuznets Eğrisi Yaklaşımı
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.63556/tisej.2026.1754Anahtar Kelimeler:
Çevresel Kuznets Eğrisi- Enerji Tüketimi- Karbon EmisyonlarıÖzet
Bu çalışma, Türkiye’de 1990-2023 döneminde ekonomik büyüme, enerji tüketimi ve sanayi sektörünün karbondioksit emisyonları üzerindeki etkilerini inceleyerek Çevresel Kuznets Eğrisi (EKC) hipotezinin geçerliliğini değerlendirmektedir. Araştırmanın temel sorusu, gelir artışının çevresel bozulma üzerinde doğrusal olmayan bir ilişki oluşturup oluşturmadığı ve enerji-sanayi yapısının bu ilişkiyi nasıl şekillendirdiğidir. Bu kapsamda Dünya Bankası WDI veri setinden elde edilen yıllık seriler kullanılmış; kişi başına CO₂ emisyonu bağımlı değişken, kişi başına reel GSYH, GSYH’nin karesi, enerji tüketimi ve sanayi payı ise bağımsız değişkenler olarak modele dâhil edilmiştir. Kısa ve uzun dönem ilişkiler Gecikmesi Dağıtılmış Otoregresif (ARDL) sınır testi yaklaşımıyla analiz edilmiştir. Bulgular, değişkenler arasında uzun dönemli eş bütünleşme bulunduğunu ve EKC hipotezinin Türkiye için geçerli olduğunu göstermektedir. Gelir artışı emisyonları artırırken, gelirin karesi negatif ve anlamlı bulunarak ters-U biçimli ilişkiyi doğrulamaktadır. Enerji tüketimi CO₂ emisyonlarını pozitif ve güçlü biçimde etkilemekte, sanayi payının etkisi ise anlamlı değildir. Hata düzeltme katsayısı, sistemin uzun dönem dengesine hızlı bir uyum gösterdiğini ortaya koymaktadır. Sonuçlar, çevresel sürdürülebilirliğin yenilenebilir enerjiye yönelim, enerji verimliliği ve yeşil sanayi politikalarıyla desteklenmesi gerektiğini göstermekte; Türkiye’nin 2053 net sıfır emisyon hedefiyle uyumlu bir dönüşüm ihtiyacına işaret etmektedir.
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