The Relationship Between Public Social Expenditures and Economic Growth in Türkiye: Evidence from a Fourier-Based Econometric Approach
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.63556/tisej.2026.1790Keywords:
Social Expenditures, Economic Growth, Economic Development, Türkiye, FourierAbstract
Social expenditure stands out as one of the key policy instruments promoting inclusive and sustainable economic growth. In many developing countries, the public sector plays a leading role in providing services such as education, health, and social protection, which are vital to human capital formation and development. In this context, it is crucial to determine whether public social expenditure contributes to long-term economic growth in Türkiye, a developing country. In this context, this study analyzes the influence of social expenditures on economic growth in Türkiye for the period 1980–2024, using Fourier-based econometric methods (Fourier KPSS, Fourier-Shin, and Fourier-DOLS). Findings from the Fourier-Shin method indicate that public social expenditures and economic growth are cointegrated in the presence of structural breaks. Long-term coefficients calculated using the Fourier-DOLS method imply that public social expenditures have a positive and statistically significant effect on economic growth. Such a finding highlights the importance of public social expenditures for inclusive and stable long-term economic growth in Türkiye, consistent with the predictions of endogenous growth models. Policymakers should allocate additional resources to social expenditures and take measures to improve their quality to ensure inclusive and stable economic growth over the long term.
References
Adema, W., & Fron, P. (2019). The OECD SOCX Manual–2019 Edition. A Guide to the OECD Social Expenditure Database. Paris: Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development. https://www.oecd.org/content/dam/oecd/en/topics/policy-sub-issues/social-spending/socx_manuel_2019.pdf Erişim tarihi: 15.12.2025.
Adema, W., & Ladaique, M. (2009). How Expensive Is The Welfare State?: Gross and Net Indicators in the OECD Social Expenditure Database (SOCX). https://cdi.mecon.gob.ar/bases/doc/oecd/sem/92.pdf Erişim tarihi: 15.12.2025.
Ahuja, D., & Pandit, D. (2022). Social Spending As A Development Tool: Evidence From Developing Countries. European Journal of Government and Economics (EJGE), 11(1), 73-96. https://doi.org/10.17979/ejge.2022.11.1.7385
Alam, S., Sultana, A., & Butt, M. S. (2010). Does Social Expenditures Promote Economic Growth? A Multivariate Panel Cointegration Analysis For Asian Countries. European Journal of Social Sciences, 14(1), 44-54.
Alper, F. O., & Demiral, M. (2016). Public Social Expenditures and Economic Growth: Evidence From Selected OECD Countries. Research in World Economy, 7(2), 44-51. https://doi.org/10.5430/rwe.v7n2p44
Arısoy, İ., Ünlükaplan, İ., & Ergen, Z. (2010). Sosyal Harcamalar ve İktisadi Büyüme İlişkisi: Türkiye Ekonomisinde 1960–2005 Dönemine Yönelik Bir Dinamik Analiz. Maliye Dergisi, 158(1), 398-421.
Arjona, R., Ladaique, M., & Pearson, M. (2002). Social Protection and Growth. OECD Economic Studies, No. 35, 2002/2. https://doi.org/10.1787/eco_studies-v2002-2-en
Ayas, S., & Ayas, I. (2021). Türkiye’de Sosyal Harcamalar ve Ekonomik Büyüme İlişkisi: ARDL Sınır Testi Yaklaşımı. Ekonomi Maliye İşletme Dergisi, 4(2), 134-144. https://doi.org/10.46737/emid.1035325
Aydın, F. F. (2019). G7 Ülkelerinde Sosyal Harcamaların Ekonomik Büyüme Üzerine Etkisi. Iğdır Üniversitesi Sosyal Bilimler Dergisi, (EK SAYI (2019)), 91-108.
Başoğlu, A. (2021). Sosyal Harcamaların Ekonomik Büyüme Üzerine Etkileri: Türkiye Düzey 1 Bölgeleri İçin Panel Veri Analizi. Uluslararası Ekonomi ve Yenilik Dergisi, 7(1), 21-35. https://doi.org/10.20979/ueyd.814222
Becker, R., Enders, W., & Lee, J. (2006). A Stationarity Test in the Presence of an Unknown Number of Smooth Breaks. Journal of Time Series Analysis, 27(3), 381–409. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1467-9892.2006.00478.x
Bozatli, O., Serin, S. C., & Demir, M. (2024). The Causal Relationship Between Public Debt and Economic Growth in G7 Countries: New Evidence From Time and Frequency Domain Approaches. Economic Change and Restructuring, 57(3), 136. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10644-024-09716-8
Connolly, M., & Li, C. (2016). Government Spending and Economic Growth in the OECD Countries. Journal of Economic Policy Reform, 19(4), 386-395. https://doi.org/10.1080/17487870.2016.1213168
Cooray, A., & Nam, Y. S. (2025). Public social Spending, Government Effectiveness, and Economic Growth: An Empirical Investigation. Applied Economics, 57(1), 52-66. https://doi.org/10.1080/00036846.2024.2302933
Çetin, İ. (2020). Gelişmekte Olan Ülkelerde Sosyal Harcamaların Ekonomik Büyüme Üzerindeki Etkisi. Bolu Abant İzzet Baysal Üniversitesi Sosyal Bilimler Enstitüsü Dergisi, 20(2), 351-364. https://doi.org/10.11616/basbed.vi.659891
Ersin, İ., & Baş, H. (2019). Güney Avrupa Refah Ülkelerinde Sosyal Harcamalar Ve Ekonomik Büyüme Arasındaki İlişkinin İncelenmesi. Sosyal Güvenlik Dergisi, 9(1), 193-213. https://doi.org/10.32331/sgd.582752
Eser, B., & Genç, M. C. (2023). Türkiye’de Sosyal Harcamaların Gelir Eşitsizliği ve Ekonomik Büyüme Üzerindeki Etkisi: Fourier ADL Eşbütünleşme Analizi. Uluslararası Ekonomi İşletme ve Politika Dergisi, 7(2), 226-241. https://doi.org/10.29216/ueip.1322870
Furceri, D., & Zdzienicka, A. (2012). The Effects of Social Spending on Economic Activity: Empirical Evidence From a Panel of OECD Countries. Fiscal Studies, 33(1), 129-152. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1475-5890.2012.00155.x
Heitzig, C. (2015). U.S. State Social Spending and Economic Growth. Honors Theses, 1963-2015. 63. https://digitalcommons.csbsju.edu/cgi/viewcontent.cgi?article=1062&context=honors_theses Erişim tarihi: 14.12.2025.
Herman, B. (2024). IMF Has a New Policy on Social Spending: How Should the Fund Implement It? Social Protection Floors Coalition. https://www.socialprotectionfloorscoalition.org/wp-content/uploads/2024/01/2024-IMF-guidance-on-social-spending-policy-Barry-Herman.pdf Erişim tarihi: 14.12.2025.
Ihugba O.A. & Njoku A.C. (2017). Social and Community Services Government Expenditure and Nigeria’s Economic Growth. In: Tsounis N., Vlachvei A. (eds) Advances in Applied Economic Research. Springer Proceedings in Business and Economics. Springer, Cham. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-319-48454-9 5.
Im, T., Cho, W., & Porumbescu, G. (2011). An Empirical Analysis of the Relation Between Social Spending and Economic Growth in Developing Countries and OECD Members. Asia Pacific Journal of Public Administration, 33(1), 37-55. https://doi.org/10.1080/23276665.2011.10779377
IMF (2019). A Strategy For IMF Engagement on Social Spending. IMF Policy Paper. https://www.imf.org/-/media/files/publications/pp/2019/ppea2019016.pdf Erişim tarihi: 14.12.2025.
IMF (2024). Operational Guidance Note For IMF Engagement on Social Spending Issues. Operational Guidance Note for IMF Engagement on Social Spending Issues; IMF Policy Paper; April 30, 2024 Erişim tarihi: 14.12.2025.
İŞKUR (2024). 2024-2028 Stratejik Planı. T.C. Çalışma ve Sosyal Güvenlik Bakanlığı, Türkiye İş Kurumu Genel Müdürlüğü, Ankara. https://www.iskur.gov.tr/medya/5emngr1s/2024-2028-stratejik-plani.pdf Erişim tarihi: 09.02.2026
Kaymaz, V. (2018). OECD Ülkelerinde Sosyal Harcamaların Belirleyicileri. Gazi İktisat ve İşletme Dergisi, 4(2), 118-130. https://doi.org/10.30855/gjeb.2018.4.2.005
Kolçak, M., & Kalabak, A. Y. (2017). Kısa Dönemde Sosyal Harcamalar İle Ekonomik Büyüme Arasındaki İlişki, 29/28 OECD Ülkesi İçin Panel Veri Analizi (1998-2012). Gazi Üniversitesi İktisadi ve İdari Bilimler Fakültesi Dergisi, 19(1), 1-19.
Kwiatkowski, D., Phillips, P. C. B., Schmidt, P., & Shin, Y. (1992). Testing the Null Hypothesis of Stationarity Against the Alternative of A Unit Root: How Sure Are We That Economic Time Series Have A Unit Root? Journal of Econometrics, 54(1), 159–178. https://doi.org/10.1016/0304-4076(92)90104-Y
Michel, S. (2018). Social Spending as a Driver of Economic Growth: Has the Theoretical Consensus of the 1980s Led to Successful Economic Policies?. In Baslé M. & M. Poettinger (eds.), Macroeconomic Theory and the Eurozone Crisis (pp. 123-140). Routledge. London & New York. https://hal.umontpellier.fr/hal-01944296v1/document Erişim tarihi: 13.12.2025.
OECD (2025a). Social Expenditure Database (SOCX). https://www.oecd.org/en/data/datasets/social-expenditure-database-socx.html Erişim tarihi: 14.12.2025.
OECD (2025b). Social Spending. https://www.oecd.org/en/topics/social-spending.html Erişim tarihi: 14.12.2025.
OECD (2025c). OECD Economic Surveys: Türkiye 2025, OECD Publishing, Paris, https://doi.org/10.1787/d01c660f-en
Öksüz, M., & Aydın, M. (2023). Türkiye’de Sosyal Harcamaların Makroekonomik Etkileri: 1990 Sonrası Kriz Dönemleri Özelinde Bir Analiz. International Journal of Social Inquiry, 16(1), 275-296. https://doi.org/10.37093/ijsi.1187005
Öztürk, M. (2020). Sosyal Harcama Türleri ve Ekonomik Büyüme İlişkisi: Türkiye Örneği. Sosyal Güvenlik Dergisi, 10(1), 107-124. https://doi.org/10.32331/sgd.753037
Polat, E. (2020). Sosyal Harcamalar Ekonomik Büyümeyi Etkiliyor Mu? Türkiye Örneği. Üçüncü Sektör Sosyal Ekonomi Dergisi, 55(1), 268-281. https://doi.org/10.15659/3.sektor-sosyal-ekonomi.20.02.1273
Sağdıç, E. N. & Yıldız, F. (2025). Kamu ve Özel Kesim Sosyal Harcamaları ile Ekonomik Büyüme İlişkisi: Seçilmiş OECD Ülkeleri Analizi. In: Gözen, S. & Sağdıç, E. N. (eds.), Günümüz Dünyasında Mali Gelişmeler: Teori ve Uygulama. Özgür Yayınları. https://doi.org/10.58830/ozgur.pub963.c3972
Shin, Y. (1994). A Residual-Based Test of The Null of Cointegration Against the Alternative of No Cointegration. Econometric Theory, 10(1), 91-115. https://doi.org/10.1017/S0266466600008240
Stock, J. H., & Watson, M. W. (1993). A Simple Estimator of Cointegrating Vectors In Higher Order Integrated Systems. Econometrica: Journal of the Econometric Society, 783-820. https://doi.org/10.2307/2951763
T.C. Cumhurbaşkanlığı Strateji ve Bütçe Başkanlığı. (2023). On ikinci kalkınma planı (2024-2028). https://www.sbb.gov.tr/wp-content/uploads/2023/12/On-Ikinci-Kalkinma-Plani_2024-2028_11122023.pdf Erişim tarihi: 09.02.2026
Tsong, C. C., Lee, C. F., Tsai, L. J., & Hu, T. C. (2016). The Fourier Approximation and Testing For The Null of Cointegration. Empirical Economics, 51(3), 1085-1113. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00181-015-1028-6
Ullah, O., Rahman, Z. U., Guo, A., & Zeb, A. (2024). Disaggregated Public Spending, Income Inequality and Its Effect on Economic Growth: Empirical Evidence From Developing Countries. Journal of the Knowledge Economy, 15(4), 20823-20850. https://doi.org/10.1007/s13132-024-01991-0
Ünlükaplan, İ., Arısoy, İ., & Canıkalp, E. (2018). Yönetişim Kalitesi ve İktisadi Büyüme: Türkiye Ekonomisi İçin Bir Ampirik Analiz. Uluslararası İktisadi ve İdari İncelemeler Dergisi, 487-508. https://doi.org/10.18092/ulikidince.441213
Downloads
Published
How to Cite
Issue
Section
License
Copyright (c) 2026 Third Sector Social Economic Review
This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial 4.0 International License.
