Türkiye’de Finans-Büyüme İlişkisi: Uzun Dönem Dinamikler ve Nedensellik Bulguları
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.63556/tisej.2026.1674Anahtar Kelimeler:
Ekonomik büyüme- Doğrudan yabancı yatırımlar- Piyasa değeri- Enflasyon- İşsizlik- ARDL- Tado YamamatoÖzet
Bu çalışma, Türkiye’de 1993–2024 döneminde piyasa değeri, doğrudan yabancı yatırımlar, enflasyon ve işsizlik ile ekonomik büyüme arasındaki uzun ve kısa dönem ilişkileri ile nedensellik dinamiklerini incelemektedir. Değişkenlerin durağanlık özellikleri ADF, PP ve yapısal kırılmalı birim kök testleri ile analiz edilmiş; farklı bütünleşme derecelerine sahip seriler için ARDL sınır testi yaklaşımı uygulanmıştır. Uzun dönem katsayıları, piyasa değeri ve işsizliğin büyüme üzerinde negatif ve istatistiksel olarak anlamlı etkiler yarattığını, doğrudan yabancı yatırımların ise pozitif katkı sağladığını göstermektedir. Hata düzeltme katsayısının negatif ve anlamlı olması, kısa dönem sapmaların hızlı biçimde uzun dönem dengesine uyum sağladığını ortaya koymaktadır. Nedensellik yönü ise Toda–Yamamoto yaklaşımıyla test edilmiş ve finansal göstergeler ile büyüme arasında çift yönlü etkileşimler tespit edilmiştir. Bulgular, finansal gelişmenin doğrusal olmayan ve çok boyutlu bir yapıya sahip olduğunu ve makroekonomik istikrarın büyüme dinamikleri açısından belirleyici olduğunu göstermektedir. Çalışma, uzun dönem denge ilişkisi ile nedensellik mekanizmasını birlikte ele alarak literatüre metodolojik ve ampirik katkı sunmaktadır.
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