FUTURE PROJECTION OF THE TURKISH TRANSPORT SECTOR IN TERMS OF THE EUROPEAN GREEN DEAL

Abstract

With the European Green Deal, the transition to a circular economy model in which environmental damage is minimized has been determined as an important goal. This economic transformation will greatly affect EU countries and other countries in close relations. The size of the trade volume with the EU and strong business partnerships in logistics activities require Türkiye's compliance with the agreement. The transportation sector is one of the sectors expected to be primarily affected by this adaptation process. For this reason, this study was conducted to draw attention to the transformation process that will be experienced in the Turkish Transportation Sector. Quantitative research methods were used in the study. By analyzing TURKSTAT's 2013-2023 data, predictions were made with ARIMA forecast models for the years 2024-2030. Research findings show that commercial activities between the EU and Türkiye will continue at a high level. The conclusion of the research consists of the transformation process in road transportation, which is a highly polluting transportation type in terms of greenhouse gas emissions in the Turkish transportation sector, and the recommendations that should be implemented for the transportation sector in the coming years.