Determination of Future Trends of Cruise Tourism in Turkey Through Time Series Analysis
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.63556/tisej.2025.1463Keywords:
Cruise industry, Forecasting, Turkiye, SPSS 29, ARIMAAbstract
In this study, 170 data sets were created from the Ministry of Transport and Infrastructure database for analysis between 2011-2025, including Jan and Feb 2025. In this context, numbers for incoming cruise ships belonging to cruise markets, incoming passengers, outgoing passengers, transit passengers and total number of passengers were created and examined. The average values, minimum and maximum values of these values were analyzed separately on a monthly, annual and port authority basis. The study was done in three stages. In the first stage, status of cruise tourism was expressed statistically. In second stage, time series analysis was performed to determine future estimates. For this purpose, by performing forecast modeling in SPSS 29 package program, estimated values regarding the incoming and outgoing passenger numbers of cruise tourism in Türkiye for next five-year period (2025-2030) are obtained. It is understood that the zero-ship number and zero passenger effect recorded in the statistics during the pandemic period negatively affected forecast the demand. As a result it is observed that negative effect would go on for next 5 years. Finally, estimated values obtained are compared to the values realized in 2024 and comprehensive evaluations for cruise tourism in Türkiye are made.
References
Alkan, G., Koraltürk, G., Eroğlu Pektaş, G., & Kahraman, C. (2015). Evaluation of Istanbul Port in Cruise Tourism in Terms of Brand Value. International Journal of Operations and Logistics Management, 4(4), pp. 276-285.
Aras, S. (2022). Turkiye'deki Kruvaziyer Turizm Araştırmalarının Bibliyometrik Analizi. Seyahat ve Otel İşletmeciliği Dergisi/ Journal of Travel and Hospitality Business Cilt/Vol:19(2),Yıl/ Year:2022, ss/pp,238-250 , 238-550.
Brida, J. G. (2011). Residents’ attitudes and perceptions towards cruise tourism development: A case study of Cartagena de Indias (Colombia). Tourism and Hospitality Research (2011).
Chan F, Lim C., Mcaleer M. (2005), Modeling multivariate international tourism demand and volatility, Tourism Management, 26 (2005), pp. 459-471 Shahrabi et al., 2013)
Davenport, J., & Davenport, J.L. (2006). The impact of tourism and personal leisure transport on coastal environments: A review. Estuarine, Coastal and Shelf Science, 67, 280-292.
Han, H., Yu, J., Koo, B., ve Kim, W. (2019). Vacationers’ norm-based behavior in developing environmentally sustainable cruise tourism. Journal of Quality Assurance in Hospitality ve Tourism, 20(1), 89-106.).
G. Athanasopoulos, R.J. Hyndman, H.Y. Song, D.C. Wu, (2011), The tourism forecasting competition, International Journal of Forecasting, 27 (3) (2011), pp. 822-844
Jian-Wu Bi, Hui Li, Zhi-Ping Fan (2021), Tourism demand forecasting with time series imaging: A deep learning model,Qnnals of Tourism Research, 90,2021, 103255, ISSN 0160-7383,
Kendall, L. (1986). The Business of Shipping. In The business of shipping, 482-488.
Kong. Y.Y. Lau, K.C. Tam, A.K.Y. Ng, A. Palli (2014). A cruise terminal site selection process: An institutional analysis of the Kai Tak cruise terminal in Hong Kong.,Research in Transportation Business and Management,13,16-23.
Lloret, J., Carreno, A., Caric, H., San, J, & Fleming L.E. (2021). A review. Marine Pollution Bulletin, 173(1-13).
Johnson, D. (2002). Environmentally sustainable cruise tourism: a reality check. Marine Policy,. Johnson, D. (2002). Environmentally sustainable cruise tourism: a reality check. Marine Policy, 26, 261-270., 26, 261-270.
Paiano, A., Crovella, T., Lagioia, G., (2020), Managing sustainable practises in cruise tourism: the assesment of carbon footprint and iste of water and beverage packaging, Tourism Management, 77, 104016. doi.org/10.1016/j.tourman.2019.104016
Rodrigue, J. P., & Notteboom, T. (2013). The geography of cruises: Itineraries, not destinations. Applied Geography, 38, 31-42.
Yabancı, O. (2023) Analyzing Seasonality in Cruise Tourism: The Seaports in Turkey, GSI Journals Serie A: Advancements in Tourism, Recreation and Sports Sciences, 2023, 6 (2): 272-28
Yui-yip Lau, & Tsz Leung Yip. (2020, The Asia cruise tourism industry: Current trend and future outlook. The Asian Journal of Shipping and Logistics Volume 36, Issue 4, December 2020, Pages 202-213, 36(4), 202-213.
Akgül, I, ( 2003) “Zaman Serilerinin Analizi ve ARIMA Modelleri”,İstanbul ,2003.
Cruise Line Interanational Association (CLIA) Global Passenger Report 2020 (2021). Accessed Date: 17.02.2025, : https://cruising.org/en-gb/news-and-research/research/2021/june/clia-global-passenger-report-2020 is retrieved.
Cruise Line Interanational Association (CLIA) 2023 Global Passenger Report (2023).Accessed Date: 17.02.2025, https://cruising.org/en-gb/news-and-research/research/2024/april/2023-global-passenger-report is retrieved.
Cruise Line Interanational Association (CLIA). State of the Cruise Industry Report (2024). Accessed Date: 11.10.2024, https://cruising.org/-/media/clia-media/research/2.024/2024-state-of-the-cruise-industry-report_041424_web.ashx is retrieved.
Railynews (2025), Brande Finace City Index List, Accessed Date: 25.03.2025,
https://raillynews.com/2024/11/brand-financein-city-index-2024-arastirmasinda-turk-sehirleri-one-cikti/ is retrieved.
Ulaştırma Bakanlığı (2024), Denizcilik İstatistikleri Kruvaziyer İstatistikleri,Accessed Date: 15.02.2025,https://denizcilikistatistikleri.uab.gov.tr/kruvaziyer-istatistikleri is retrieved.
United Nations World Tourism Organization (UNWTO) (2024).: International Tourism to Reach Pre-Pandemic Levels in 2024, Accessed Date: 15.10.2024, https://www.unwto.org/news/international-tourism-to-reach-pre-pandemic-levels-in-2024#:~:text=International%20tourism%20hit%20US%241.4,earned%20by%20destinations%20in%202019 is retrieved.
Chen, Jui-Chi (2000). Forecasting Method Applications to Recreation and Tourism Demand, Doctoral Thesis, North Carolina State University, USA.
Fazıl, G, 1991), ARIMA Modelleriyle Gelecek Tahmini ve THY Yolcu Sayıları Üzerine Bir Deneme, Basılmamış Doktora Tezi, İstanbul, 1991, sf. 9
Niatu, A. (2007, Niatu, A. L. (2007). Dosalsal, the floating ones: Exploring the socio-cultural impacts of cruise ship tourism on Port Vila, Vanuatu residents, and their coping strategies. Master Thesis. Lincoln: Lincoln University.).
Duru, Ö, (2007) Zaman Serilerinde Arıma Modelleme Ve Bir Uygulama, İstanbul Üniversitesi Sosyal Bilimler Enstitüsü, Yüksek Lisans, 2007.
Downloads
Published
How to Cite
Issue
Section
License
Copyright (c) 2025 Third Sector Social Economic Review
This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial 4.0 International License.
